A Quantitative Political Spectrum and Forecasting of Social Evolution
In the exact sciences the “spectrum” concept is formalized, computable and used in effective mathematical procedures like the Fourier transform. At that the spectrum represents quite definite properties of material nature. In the social sciences the “spectrum” term is also used, however, it is figurative. In particular, the “spectrum” concept in the political sciences means traditionally emphasis on the right, the left and the centrists. In this work a new quantitative approach for political spectrum description is suggested. By analogy with Fourier transform the causation between a momentary spectrum distribution and a subsequent temporal process is ascertained. The suggested methodology has applied for a search of particular fast changing political process in the 1990-2007 in Russia. The approved methodology can be used to analyze variable political processes and to forecast their evolution. In particular, the next full-scale political and socio-economical crisis in Russia is predicted.
||Political Science-political Process in Russia-political Spectrum, Social Sciences-mathematical Methods-quantitative Approach
International Journal of Interdisciplinary Social Sciences, Volume 5, Issue 4, pp.55-66.
Article: Print (Spiral Bound).
Article: Electronic (PDF File; 1.306MB).
Director General, Governance and Problem Analysis Center (GAPAC), Moscow, Russian Federation
Stepan Sulakshin graduated from the Tomsk State University and began his career at the Siberian Physical and Technical Institution. He took PhD degree in physics in 1981, he is a doctor of physical and mathematic science since 1995 and a doctor of political science since 2000. He is the author of more than 200 published works, 20 books, 24 inventions. The sphere of his current scientific interests includes political science, interdisciplinary approach in social sciences, mathematical methods in social sciences, modelling and forecasting of trades of humanity evolution, scientific basis for state governance. He is Editor-in-Chief of scientific journal “Nauchnyi expert” (“Scientific Expert”), Director General of Governance and Problem Analysis Center, Moscow, Russia, Adviser of Chairman of Federation Council of the Russian Federation. His recent publications in English: 1) V.I. Yakunin, S.S. Sulakshin, V.M.Mezhuev et al. “From the Dialogue between civilizations to cooperation and integration”, General editing by S.S.Sulakshin, M.: Scientific Expert, 2006, 161 p. 2) V.I. Yakunin, V.E. Bagdasaryan, S.S. Sulakshin
Economic Policy Ideology. Monograph. — М.: Nauchnyi expert, 2009. — 256 p. 3 Stepan Sulakshin “A view on the world economic crisis”, “Baltic Rim Economies Review”, Pan European Institute (Finland), 2009.
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